The Superficial Release of OFC Opposition Leaders: What’s Really Happening?
Nobel Peace Prize winner turned-dictator scrambles to rally support in the midst of Ethiopia’s civil war.
Two months have passed since the sudden release of OFC (Oromo Federalist Congress) opposition leaders, unduly detained after the assassination of legendary singer and activist Hacalu Hundesa in June of 2020. Their arrest at Hundesa’s burial and the crackdown on innocent civilians following suit prolonged Abiy Ahmed’s disruptive reign. The extrajudicial pardon granted to Jawar Mohammed, Bekele Gerba, and the like actually worked in Abiy’s favour… for about two seconds.
How?
After the 2014–18 ‘Qeerroo’ protests of the Oromo youth pressured the 27-year dominant-party regime of the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) to step down, a new transitional government was to be installed for the remaining two years of former PM Hailemariam Desalegn term. Abiy, a member of parliament at the time, shoved his way to filling that gap.
Abiy initially seemed well-intentioned; releasing political prisoners and rehabilitating relations with neighboring Eritrea — later receiving the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. But little by little over the years he has steered Ethiopian politics towards a steep gorge. Assigning prominent members of his administration to lower positions, intimidating (and arresting) formidable opposition, and then using COVID-19 as a pretext to postpone 2020 transitional elections and go on a human rights violation spree, Abiy now finds himself cornered by all those he’s betrayed.
While the entire country has become a conflict zone that destabilizes the Horn, the government has no choice but to consider peace through dialogue because of the power of encroaching rebel groups like the OLA (Oromo Liberation Army) and TDF (Tigray Defense Force), and the work of global sanctions, non-stop advocacy from abroad, and civil unrest. Unfortunately, the insincerity of Abiy and his administration that first reopened Ethiopia’s deep wounds continues to manifest itself through this ingenuine amnesty.
Frankly, the political agenda behind the release is simple: for Abiy to regain lost power and trust by instilling political hope in the global community and the Oromo (the Horn’s largest ethnic group). As an appendage, it attempts to exclude the OLA and TDF from the picture as stakeholders in a prospective dialogue and backstabs the interests of Amhara elites and extremists that jointly perpetrated chaos alongside the Ethiopian government.
The Response
On the diplomatic front, US President Joe Biden commended Abiy on a call days after the news. Reportedly, they commented on the current political and humanitarian crises in Ethiopia and how it affects US-Ethio bilateral relations. Only time will tell whether the two countries can mend their faltering yet pivotal relations for both sides.
Notwithstanding, this and Abiy’s other steps towards ‘national dialogue’ and ‘reconciliation’ are diversions meant to distract Ethiopians, particularly the Oromo, from the contradicting ways the government impedes this goal such as:
- The lack of development on the release of OLF (Oromo Liberation Front) leaders including Jaal Abdi Ragasa, Colonel Gamachu Ayana, Bate Urgesa, Mikael Boran, others, and chairman Jaal Dawud Ibsa who still remains under house arrest.
- The use of government propaganda to hide state-sponsored crimes and blame the OLA and TDF
- Daily airstrikes in Oromia and Tigray on innocent civilians using supplies of drones from the UAE, Iran, Turkey, and China.
- The pressure of Eritrean troops on Tigray and their redeployment in Western Oromia.
- Support for reckless Fano militia
- Broken promises to Amhara elites to eradicate independent groups (i.e. OLA and TDF).
- Massive humanitarian crises in Tigray, including a blockade.
- Customary arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killings.
- The use and abuse of child soldiers.
- 50 000 political prisoners languishing in inhumane detention since 2020, according to grassroots estimation.
Although joyous about the return of high-profile opposition leaders, the Oromo are far from satisfied with the current government. Expecting himself to be praised for his deed, instead, Abiy has inadvertently opened the door for Oromos to demand more change. This includes the release of ALL political prisoners, the end to unprovoked government violence, negotiation with ALL stakeholders, and true democracy. Because of Abiy’s unreliability, many are looking to freedom fighters in the forest as solutions to the never-ending issue.
The Treacherous Road to Peace
Still far from the Ethiopia advertised by the government, stakeholders within and outside the country are opposed to or at least discontent with Abiy. Hence, one of his last resorts was to use Jawar Mohammed and his pacifist comrades as decoys to avert attention from his main opponents and to buy time to make his next move.
Shortly after their pardon, OFC leaders disclosed a statement, making the expected stance for equality, acknowledging all aforementioned criteria, and re-establishing a foothold in the Ethiopian political landscape from their 18-month-long hiatus.
During that interruption, however, the OLA has made tremendous territorial, social, political, and diplomatic gains that elevate their bargaining power in peace talks. Now, with a considerable portion of Oromia in their hands, they also gained coverage on global media platforms such as BBC Africa and France 24. Today, the Ethiopian government no longer defines the OLA for the international community as in the past; the OLA writes its own story, and mainstream news media push its narrative.
Last month, in a press release titled THE NET RESULT OF ABIY’S ‘NATIONAL DIALOGUE’ PROLONGS THE ETHIOPIAN CIVIL WAR RATHER THAN END IT!, the OLA listed their non-negotiable confidence-building measures to begin an authentic national dialogue with potential for constructive change. These measures include:
1. Reaching a negotiated cessation of hostilities across the country;
2. Dealing with Eritrean influence and withdrawing its forces from Ethiopia;
3. Releasing all political prisoners across the country;
4. Opening unimpeded humanitarian corridors wherever it’s needed;
5. Repealing the proclamation that designates OLA and TPLF as terrorist organizations;
6. An all-inclusive process that leads to the establishment of an independent commission acceptable to all stakeholders.
The OLA accuses the government of “staging ‘peaceful national dialogue’ while it is also hellbent on intensifying conflicts in all parts of the country” by using aerial attacks and ‘human desperate wave tactics’. The press release also disproves any claim by the government insisting that steps toward reconciliation are being rejected or hindered by the OLA and TDF.
Meanwhile, Amhara militia forces have inflicted mass destruction as partners-in-crime with the regime, using ethnic cleansing as a means to subordinate those who don’t endorse the ethnocentric status quo — a hierarchy where Amhara’s at the top, and the other 80-some ethnic groups at the bottom.
Furthermore, these militias and the Neftegna (guns to keep order) ideology deeply rooted in their beliefs prevent peace in Ethiopia. Their intolerance of basic human rights such as freedom of speech, expression, and religion is disheartening.
Ironically, the consequences of their state-sanctioned crimes are left unquestioned by the Oromos in positions of structural power. These undeserving individuals attain wealth otherwise unattainable for the common Oromo, by bowing down to the tyrannical systems in place and turning a blind eye to the atrocities enforced on their people daily — even in some cases overseeing those atrocities. Oromia President Shimalis Abdisa and his party, the ODP (Oromo Democratic Party), climbed to power through these foundations along with countless others.
Going Forward
For Ethiopia to finally work, which it hasn’t for the last 130 years, — shifting from colonialism to feudalism to communism and then to federalism — Ethiopia must resolve the root of its plight through the unreluctant address of history as it is.
Undoubtedly, those inclined and capable to make this happen exist, but the core concern lies in the willingness of the governing party to fulfill needed prerequisites, and also the incentives of the international community to keep whatever holds Ethiopia together intact.
As the ‘one language and one identity’ motto the country maintains itself upon diminishes in popularity due to hopes of democratization being shot down repeatedly by authoritarian regimes, self-determination movements are gaining traction and viability among both actors and spectators.
To clarify, Ethiopia is not the result of different ethnicities coming together to create a unified state. Ethiopia is a colonial political project that was forced down the throats of the incorporated groups by the conquest of Abyssinians with the help of European arms under the guise of expanding Christian civilization.
With such dehumanizing foundational values and a continued disregard for indigenous people’s culture, Ethiopia encounters strong resistance to the rightful representation of different groups and some form of autonomy for those who need it. To an extent, this need was met by the EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Front) in organizing a multi-ethnic federalist state and allowing languages to be taught in schools at the turn of the 20th century. But even this progressive step is being yanked backward by Abiy under the order of unitarian Amhara elites who want to keep power centralized and suppress the diversity of those who benefit from Ethiopia.
If the Oromo and other marginalized nations and nationalities cannot have an autonomous state under the Ethiopian Empire where they can express their thoughts and practice their culture without fear for their lives, why shouldn’t they head to the jungle and fight for sovereignty? Why should they continue to have their lands exploited, their resources polluted, and their identity ground to dust? Ethiopia is a failed state that will never reach peace, and that is why the people of Oromia and all other southern ethnic groups must collectively decide and work towards what’s best for them: because Ethiopia isn’t, and the world knows it.